The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Yes, retail sales advance MoM is down in March by -0.2% following February’s print of -0.3%. And CPI MoM was down -0.3% in March as well.
So, Q1 2017 GDP is now forecast to be … 0.5%.
Is this really surprising given that US Real Average Weekly Earnings growth has been generally decreasing since early 2015?
Some had better call Stan(ley Fischer) and tell him to look at the economic numbers before raising The Fed Funds Target Rate again and shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet!!!