Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.70 million in March. Despite last month’s decline, sales are still 1.6 percent above a year ago and at the fourth highest pace over the past year.
For-sale inventory of existing homes remains in the doldrums as the median price of existing homes continues to rise rapidly.
We see the same limited inventory effect in existing home sales MONTHS SUPPLY. As the months supply collapses, median prices for existing home sales increases rapidly.
I wonder if The Fed was wise to keep The Fed Funds Target Rate at near zero and engage in a third round of quantitative easing (QE3)? Particularly when housing inventory was declining (meaning that low-rate funding was chasing scarce housing)?
According to Sentier Research, in April, real median household income reached $59,361, according to the latest report from Sentier Research. That’s up 2% since January, and is as high as it’s been since February 2002 (or 15 years). Expressed as an index, median household income was 100.9 in April, which is the first time this index has topped 100 since December 2008.
Now, if the central planners in DC can just get money velocity (GDP/Money Stock) to stop diving!
New home sales remain considerably below any level around the housing bubble. Despite the YUGE intervention by The Federal Reserve.
But while the level of new home sales is considerably below pre-2008 levels, the MEDIAN PRICE of hew home sales is considerably higher than at the peak of the housing bubble.
New home sales fell the most in The West (-26%) and The Midwest (aka, Kasich Kountry) at -13%. Bear in mind that new home sales in California are mega expensive and unless they start buildig more in Riverside and the Inland Empire, new home sales are likely to be weak.
Much of the slowdown has nothing to do with Trump. Concern is mounting that real estate prices have peaked following six years of record-shattering growth, and there are signs of overbuilding in large cities such as New York and San Francisco—the biggest beneficiaries of the recent boom.
Let’s take a look at weighted-average asking rents for office space for the lowest 35 metro areas in terms of rent growth from 2016 Q1 to 2017 Q1. Silicon Valley leads the nation in largest asking rent decline (-12.19%) since 2016 Q1 while Midtown New York actually grew 0.40% over the past year. Suburban Maryland (-3.23%) and Northern Virginia (-0.25%) both saw declines in asking rents.
Here are the top 35 Metro area in terms of percentage change in asking rents. Notice that while Manhattan asking rents are flat to falling while Brooklyn asking rents rose 16.51%. Same story holds for Silicon Valley (aka, San Jose). Silicon Valley fell -12.19% over the past year while just up the road in Oakland/East Bay, asking rents rose 15%.
Average office vacancy rates nationally stands at 13.2% in 2017 Q1, down ever so slightly from 13.4% in 2016 Q1. Northern Virginia (21.3%) was edged out for the worst office vacancy rate in the US by Dayton Ohio (23.3%) and Fairfield County, CT (23.1%). Here is the Cushman Wakefield report on Northern Virginia’s overbuilt office market. CW_VA_Survey_1Q17 (1)
The lowest vacancy rate in the nation? El Paso, Texas at 6.4%. That is a far cry from Northern Virginia’s 21.3% office vacancy rate.
The bad news? 1) Retail originations fell 23% from Q1 2016. 2) CMBS/Conduit originations were down 17%. 3) Hotel originations were down 40%.
The good news? 1) Healthcare originations were up 22%. 2) Industrial originations were up 40%. 3) Multifamily originations were up 14%.
Notice that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac multifamily origination programs were up 33% from Q1 2016. At the same time, Life Insurance Companies saw 0% growth in commercial/multifamily originations.
Thanks to The Federal Reserve, short-term interest rates remain suppresed and have for the last ten years.
Office originations grew at a listless 2% from Q1 2016. On-line retailers like Amazon have helped shrinked the retail footprint. But will shared office space and the internet finally drive a spike through office space when employees can work remotely?
According to data vendor Attom, there remains 5.5 million homes that are seriously underwater (slightly less than 10%). On the other hand, there 13.7 million homes that are “equity rich” (around 24% of homes).
Equity rich is defined as the combined loan amount secured by the property is 50 percent or less than the estimated market value of the property. Seriously underwater is defined as the combined loan amount secured by the property was at least 25 percent higher than the property’s estimated market value.
One culprit is limited for-sale inventory. This chart is from Zillow:
The other culprit is The Federal Reserve, who have kept rate depressed for around 10 years.
Yes, limited for-sale housing inventory and Fed-depresssed interest rates for 10 years is helping some but not others.
Now, take a wild quess which states are “equity rich?” If you guessed California and New York, you were correct!!
Yes, housing is getting progressively more unaffordable to many households as limited for-sale inventory and insanely low monetary policy have effectively jailed (locked-out) many households from owning a home in California and New York.
“Please Chairman Yellen! Stop driving up home prices with your super-low interest rates when for-sale inventory is so low.”
There was a burst of enthusiasm in capital markets surrounding Donald Trump’s election as US President. It was a hope for economic growth, higher paying jobs and undoing President Obama’s regulatory overreach.
But alas, continued stonewalling in Congress by Democrats (and RINOS) as well as threats of impeachment over Russia have killed off enthusian in the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve. As you can see, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve slope is now lower than before the November 8th election.
But that optimism effect has not declined appreciably in the 10 year Treasury and 3o year mortgage rate. The optimism effect has gradually declined to Nov 14th level, several days after the election.
While there has been a downward drift in the 10 year Treasury yield, The Federal Reserve has been merrily raising their Fed Funds Target Rate twice since the election, helping to flatten the 10Y-2Y curve.
With another rate increase expected at the next FOMC meeting on June 14th (90% likelihood), we should be a further flattening of the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve (ceteris paribus) and a further decline in the Trump optimism effect.
And there is a 6% chance that we could see a rate CUT at the July FOMC meeting.
Janet Yellen: “I swear that I will not raise rates and spook investors more than once, unless Donald Trump is elected.”