Bubbles? Shiller P/E Ratio Nears Roaring ’20s Bubble High As Home Prices Increased 43.6% Since Feb ’16

Supreme Court Justice Potter Steward said in 1964 in the Jacobellis v. Ohio case,  “I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [hard-core pornography]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that.”

Asset bubbles too are difficult to define, but I know it when I see it.

Take Robert Shiller’s P/E Ratio measure for stocks. There was a Roaring ’20s bubble which burst in 1929 (Black Tuesday), there was the infamous Dot.com bubble. On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ Composite peaked at 5,132.52, but fell 78% in the following 30 months.

Now we are seemingly in yet another stock market bubble and almost at the P/E Ratio level of the Roaring ’20s bubble (but not near the dizzying heights of the Dot.com bubble … yet).

Stocks do seem awfully “frothy.” But what about home prices? The Case-Shiller 20 composite home price index has grown 43.6% since February 2012.  While home prices are not growing as fast as they did during the home price bubble of the last decade, they are going at a rate that is twice as fast as earnings (wage) growth.

These certainly look like asset bubbles. If it looks like a bubble and acts like a bubble, it probablyis a bubble.

“Shhh. Don’t say the word “bubble!”

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14 thoughts on “Bubbles? Shiller P/E Ratio Nears Roaring ’20s Bubble High As Home Prices Increased 43.6% Since Feb ’16

  1. Pingback: Bubbles? Shiller P/E Ratio Nears Roaring ’20s Bubble High As Home Prices Increased 43.6% Since Feb ’16 « Financial Survival Network

  2. “Bubbles are our Business”
    — The Federal Reserve

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