It’s PBR Time! Atlanta Fed GDP Q1 Forecast Falls to 0.2% (Declining Durable Manufacturing, etc.)

Today opened with several negative economic reports, including a MoM decline in wholesale inventories and durable goods order ex-transportation. Not to mention a decline MoM in pending home sales.

The Atlanta Fed has now lowered their Q1 (and final) GDP growth to an anemic 0.2%.

According to The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker,  Their model: GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts 042717

The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.2 percent on April 27, down from 0.5 percent on April 18. The forecast of first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.3 percent to 0.1 percent after yesterday’s annual retail trade revision by the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth declined from -0.76 percentage points to -1.11 percentage points after this morning’s advance reports on durable manufacturing and wholesale and retail inventories from the Census Bureau. The forecast of real equipment investment growth increased from 5.5 percent to 6.6 percent after the durable manufacturing report and the incorporation of previously published data on light truck sales to businesses from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Notice how The Fed keeps raising their Fed Funds Target rate as the Q1 GDP forecast deteriorates? Or is the NY Fed’s Nowcast Q1 forecast the correct one?

Q1 GDP growth of 0.2%??? No more Heineken for American consumers. Its Pabst Blue Ribbon time!

I wonder if Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will be tempted to take another hit of pure oxygen?



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