Atlanta Fed Drops Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.6%, Lowest In Three Years

After today’s job report of only 98,000 jobs added in March, I was waiting to see if the Atlanta Fed would drop their Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2%.

Indeed they did! But it wasn’t just a surprisingly lame jobs report.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.6 percent on April 7, down from 1.2 percent on April 4. The forecast for first-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.4 percentage points after the light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday and 0.2 percentage points after the employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau this morning. Since April 4, the forecasts for first-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth have fallen from 1.2 percent and 9.7 percent to 0.6 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.

Here is the evolution of tanking Q1 GDP.

Ron Swanson would NOT approve.

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