According to the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index, same stores sales are about at the same level as just before The Great Recession.
While the CRB foodstuffs spot price index is about where it was just before The Great Recession, foodstuff spot prices have fallen quite a bit since 2011, causing households to choose cooking at home rather than dining out.
Is this a signal of a coming recession? Or that fact that households are trying to eat healthier? I am betting on the former.
Given the problems with traditional anchor chains in malls (like Macy’s, Sears, JC Penney’s, etc.), shopping mall and CMBS investors had better hope that mall restaurant chains don’t show the same pattern of declining same store sales.