Is The Fed REALLY Tightening? The Monetary Shell Game (Hint: M1 Money Growing at 8-10% YoY)

The Federal Reservc Open Market Committee (FOMC) has “tightened” the Fed Funds Target rate twice since December 2015. One in December 2015 and once in December 2016.

fedsdsd

Well, 75 basis points is hardly “tight.” But what about The Fed’s asset purchases? The Fed ended their third round of asset purchases in October 2014.  While QE expansion has stoppped (for the moment), The Fed’s balance sheet is being reduced very slowly. Hardly monetary tightening, but not loosening either.

qe333

But if we look at a third measure of monetary easing, M1 money supply, it is growing at a rapid rate.

fedbalm1

M1 money is growing at around 8-10% YoY. M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler’s checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.

m1growth

So while The Fed Funds Target rate is slowly risening and Fed asset purchases have curtailed, M1 Money Stock continues to grow at an unpredented rate YoY since the end of The Great Recession in June 2009.

m1multiplrt

The M1 Money Multiplier remains below 1 thanks to The Fed’s easing efforts. An M1 Money Multiplier of less than 1 means that every dollar created by the FED (an increase in the monetary base M0) will result in a <1 dollar increase of the money supply (M1). So, the credit and deposit creation of commercial banks is limited in this case. The banks are still holding on to a lot of excess reserves.

At least Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions has been falling since August 2014.

reservde

It is a shame that while M1 money grows at 8-10% YoY, average hourly earnings for 84% of the population are growing at only 2.5% YoY.

avghourlyearnyoysds

So while The Fed signals monetary “tightening,” check the third cup to find the EXPANSION pea!

10547392033_9accff5c59_b

 

 

 

 

One thought on “Is The Fed REALLY Tightening? The Monetary Shell Game (Hint: M1 Money Growing at 8-10% YoY)

  1. Eurodollar deposits migrating to domestic US banks to escape potential (likely) bail-in haircuts.

    This is beyond the Fed’s control and has nothing to do with monetary policy.

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